Prediction-based articles are some of my least favorite pieces to read or write. Admittedly, if they draw a big enough audience, it makes business sense to write them. At the beginning of a new year, it's not unusual for publications to fill space with them. I don't usually care for them, as they're just bits of conjecture based on the information people know at the moment. Their shelf life is usually quite short, as a result.
I remember interviewing coaches one year at a previous job for prognostications about their teams in the new season. Not surprisingly, almost every coach predicted a winning season for his or her team, due to the talent and potential they claimed was on their roster. (You hear coaches speak a lot about potential during such interviews, I learned.) Occasionally, I'd interview a coach who would say, candidly, "We've lost a lot of experienced players, so we have to keep our expectations realistic. This year, we're in rebuilding mode." That's about as negative as coaches' predictions ever were during interviews.
While it's human nature to want to believe that every team will play up to its potential and that a new year will be the best year ever, there's just no way to know that in advance. Thus, I'm not reading any prediction-based articles today. Instead, I'll read articles about things that actually happened. Some of them will be depressing, but at least, they'll be realistic.
